SEATTLE — We may be dealing with summer like temperatures over the next couple of days, but winter is at the forefront of many minds as La Niña is set to return late this year.
Judging by recent La Niña winters, this coming winter should be an active one. And the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seems to agree.
NOAA’s winter outlook is out and it shows the Pacific Northwest having higher chances of colder and wetter than normal weather through the months of December to February.
Now, this is a typical forecast for western Washington during La Niña years. It comes after the 2023-2024 winter when El Niño was the driving force, and featured conditions which were warmer than normal. However the winter months were also wetter than normal. Typically, El Niño conditions bring warmer and drier than normal conditions to the Pacific Northwest.
El Niño and La Niña are phases of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) which measures sea surfaces temperatures (SST) across the Central Pacific Ocean.
When SST’s are colder than normal by 0.5°C or more, the ENSO phase is considered to be heading into La Niña conditions. SST’s warmer by 0.5°C or more, the phase is considered to be in El Niño conditions.
The latest ENSO Outlook from NOAA states there is a 74% chance of La Niña conditions to be in place for the months of November to January, just ahead of the winter months. While El Niño may have been present last winter, we had a triple dip La Niña beforehand, with the previous three winters all being La Niña winters. Those winters proved to be impressive snow producers, especially for the lowlands.
Back in February of 2021, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport saw over a foot of snow (12.4”), with a whopping 8.9 inches falling in just one day on Feb. 13 that year. The day after Christmas during December of 2021, many locations here in western Washington saw between 3 to 6 inches of snow in the lowlands. And let’s not forget the ice storm which hit our area just before Christmas of 2022.
The forecasted La Niña certainly has many winter weather enthusiasts across western Washington excited about this coming winter season, and with NOAA’s forecast of colder and wetter conditions, that excitement will only grow, just as the hopeful Cascade snowpack.
