PORTLAND, Ore. — The NBA offseason hasn't even officially started, and it's already on fire.
Anthony Davis is heading to Los Angeles to pair up with LeBron James and the Lakers. Mike Conley is joining Donovan Mitchell and the Jazz in Utah. And many NBA pundits say they expect a lot of trades and movement at the NBA draft.
The draft is Thursday, and The Portland Trail Blazers have the 25th overall selection and no second-round picks. Will Portland use the pick? Or will they trade it?
This episode of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast looks at those two questions. If the Blazers use their pick, which prospects are the best fits? If they trade it, what should they be looking to get back? And what does the rest of the offseason look like?
LISTEN: 3-on-3 Blazers podcast: Will Portland use their No. 25 pick or make a trade at the NBA draft?
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1. If the Blazers keep their pick at No. 25 and draft a player, what should they look for in their selection?
Nate: They should look for a 3-and-D-type player. Last year, the Blazers focused on adding young players in the backcourt with Anfernee Simons and Gary Trent Jr. Two years ago, they focused on adding front court prospects with Zach Collins and Caleb Swanigan (since traded for another young big man, Skal Labissiere). So, this year the position they should be focused on is a forward who can stretch the floor shooting, and is athletic enough to defend quick small forwards and bigger power forwards. That’s a lot to ask for, especially with the No. 25 pick. It’s likely that if the Blazers use the 25th pick, the player they select won’t be ready to contribute immediately. But they should look for a player, who with a few years of development, could fit the role I described. A couple of players the Blazers worked out who I think could fit this role: KZ Okpala, Dylan Windler and Admiral Schofield.
Jared: When you’re picking this late in the draft, almost without exception, every player is flawed. You need to find players who possess at least one critical NBA skill, and right now, the most coveted skill in the NBA is shooting. At this spot in the draft, I’m not that concerned with player position or even roster fit. The chance this player will contribute as a rookie is slim anyway. The Blazers should look for a player who can be an asset to be used in trades down the road, or who can develop into a rotation player in a year or two. It would be nice if someone like Virginia Tech’s Nickeil Alexander-Walker (a 6-6 sophomore guard who shot 38.3% from 3 in his two seasons with the Hokies) falls to the Blazers. But I'm also a fan of Belmont’s Dylan Windler (a 6-8 senior forward who shot 40.6% from 3 during his career, including 42.9% as a senior) and Auburn’s Chuma Okeke (a 6-8 sophomore forward who shot 38.9% from 3 in his two seasons with the Tigers but is recovering from a torn ACL).
Orlando: A lot of projected second-round picks and unranked prospects came through the Blazers practice facility this offseason. I’m having a hard time believing the Blazers want to pick at 25. While many say this draft is not as strong as years of the past, Portland’s late first-round pick could be a key piece in a deal to help them trim salary and reach the full midlevel exception. That could help them resign a player like Rodney Hood. If they can’t entice a team with the 25th pick, I would look for another wing, preferably with some size who can shoot. Pretty much what everyone wants right? Another type of player I would be interested in would be someone with experience and maturity. The quicker they can adapt to pro ball, the better their chances are to make an impact immediately. One-and-done is great and if the right guys falls, take him, but the Blazers need guys who can contribute right away. It’s going to be tough to find that guy.
2. If the Blazers trade their pick, what should they be looking for in their trade return?
Jared: Looking at the players the Blazers brought in for workouts — mostly second-round prospects — it doesn’t look like Portland is interested in keeping this pick. The best-case scenario is Portland packages the No. 25 selection with one or two of their players with large expiring contracts for an upgrade at forward. Neil Olshey should be calling the Bulls about Otto Porter (Chicago will listen). Or if the Blazers like him, they could reach out to the Cavaliers about Kevin Love (he’s been in trade talks). The Rockets' P.J. Tucker and the Suns' T.J. Warren are also intriguing. The Blazers could also try to trade their first-round pick and a large expiring contract to a team that can absorb the salary. The Blazers would probably get a second-round pick back in that trade and also get below the luxury tax, which would open up the full midlevel exception to use in free agency. Or if Portland doesn’t like anyone on the board at No. 25, they can try to trade the pick for a couple second-round picks or a future first-round pick.
Orlando: This offseason is intriguing to me because it’s the first one without Paul Allen. Will we see the front office take more risks or will this be similar to years of the past? I’m expecting a steady dose of development and bargain moves with the potential of paying dividends down the road — similar to what we’ve seen before. If the Blazers trade their pick it’s gotta be to free up some cap space. My concern is how much other teams value the 25th pick. It could dictate whether they are trading it to move back in the draft or coupling it with a player to get rid of. It’s more realistic they’re trying to get into the second round Thursday night and create a little more flexibility within the roster and save some money.
Nate: A player who can contribute now, regardless of position. The Blazers, like many teams in the Western Conference, should feel their window is now to compete for a championship. Damian Lillard is in his prime. CJ McCollum is in his prime. Jusuf Nurkic will be available for the second half of the season. The team just reached a new stratosphere in postseason success. For the first time in half a decade, the Warriors seem like they’re vulnerable. The time to win is now. Now, would a team be willing to give up a role player for the 25th pick in what is perceived as a weak draft class? That seems doubtful. But that would be what I’m looking for if in a trade if I’m the Blazers.
3. Looking past the draft, what should the Blazers’ focus be the rest of the offseason?
Orlando: This is the real story. The draft is just the tip of the iceberg. The Blazers have holes to fill and not much flexibility. They have expiring contracts and not enough money to go around. This team will look different than the one we saw in the Western Conference finals. For a few days, the West has been wide open because of the serious injuries suffered by Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson. The Lakers have gone all in and the Jazz are a legitimate threat in the conference now by acquiring Mike Conley. All of a sudden there’s more pressure and urgency for the Blazers to keep up. Expectations have changed in Rip City and there are legitimate decisions to make in the coming days, weeks and months. I’m not expecting a blockbuster deal, but the Blazers will be busy during the summer.
Nate: Their biggest focus should be trying to make a move that brings a really good shooting forward to pair with Lillard and McCollum. It was apparent throughout the postseason how important it was to have another shooter alongside Lillard and McCollum (think Rodney Hood in the Denver series). The Blazers probably don’t have the pieces this offseason to make that move, but it should be the top goal of the offseason. The second focus should be on finding role shooters to fill the roster. Will Hood come back for the mid-level exception? Can they bring someone in to fill the role of Seth Curry, who is likely signing with a different team? Third, the team needs to look at the free agency center market. Nurkic is expected to be out about half the season. You need someone to fill those minutes. Kanter is likely signing with someone else. Meyers Leonard played well in the Golden State series, but his body of work has shown you can’t consistently rely on him. I’m not ready to put all my eggs in the Zach Collins basket. So, can you sign a veteran big man to a one-year deal to help fill the Nurkic void? Perhaps a Robin Lopez return?
Jared: The Blazers should try to use their expiring contracts and other assets (like future first-round draft picks and, in the right deal, young talent like Zach Collins or Anfernee Simons) to pursue a serious upgrade at small forward or power forward. They need to make a decision on Al-Farouq Aminu. He's been a part of the Blazers' core, but does Portland want to commit another three or four years and probably about $10 million annually to Aminu? If they don’t, they’ll need to trust that Collins can take a big step forward and thrive as the starting power forward next season, or they’ll need to acquire a starting power forward to replace Aminu. That’s not an easy task. They also need to decide if they have enough depth at center to survive the first half of the season without Jusuf Nurkic. Can Meyers Leonard and Zach Collins hold it down until Nurkic is back? If not, Portland needs to use the minimum salary exception to sign a big man who can fill some of those minutes. I like Nate's idea of Robin Lopez. It’s an important summer for the Blazers. The team needs to build on the momentum of a Western Conference finals appearance. It should be a fascinating offseason.
MEET THE 3-ON-3 BLAZERS TEAM
Jared Cowley is a digital media producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Jared has written about the Jazz and Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
