PORTLAND, Ore. — Portland Trail Blazers fans got a jolt of excitement with Carmelo Anthony's game winner against Toronto earlier this week, marking just the fourth time this season Portland has beat a team with a winning record.
Overall, though, it's been a bleak stretch for the Blazers. Since Dec. 23, Portland has lost six of eight, including bad losses at home to the Pelicans and Suns and an embarrassing 24-point loss on New Year's Day against the Knicks.
Because the bottom of the West is so bad, the 16-22 Blazers are just a game behind the Spurs for the conference's final playoff spot. But with a brutal schedule over the next month, the question is whether Portland can remain in playoff contention until Jusuf Nurkic returns from injury.
The trade deadline is less than a month away. Will Neil Olshey make a move or two to fortify the roster? Will he make a big splash and bring another star to Portland?
Things definitely look bad right now for the Blazers, but the eventual return of Nurkic and the promise of the trade deadline gives fans something to look forward to over the next month.
On this week's episode of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast, we discuss whether injuries are the only reason the Blazers are struggling this season, talk about what trades we expect Portland to make, and make predictions for the next four games.
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1. Is it more than just injuries? Portland is hurting, no doubt, with Nurk, Zach, Rodney and Skal. But is there more to the team's poor performance this season than just injuries?
Nate: I want to say there is something more to Portland’s poor performance. Just look at the teams the Blazers are currently competing with for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The Spurs, Grizzlies, Kings, Timberwolves or Suns don’t have two top players like Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. So, it seems like Portland should be better. But I think their defensive flaws, and underperformance from role players, are rooted in injuries. Nurkic, Collins and Hood are arguably Portland’s three best defensive players. So, when they’re out of the rotation, it’s not surprising the Blazers have ranked as a bottom-10 defensive team and have shown no signs of improvement. And the underachievement of role players is magnified because they're being forced to play more minutes than anticipated. Whiteside not making winning plays, Bazemore not being a 3-and-D and Simons' inconsistency would not be as glaring if Portland had their injured players in the rotation. So, while I see the frustration, and understand fans wondering if something more is causing the Blazers to underachieve, I still think the root of all their issues are injuries.
Jared: Injuries are still the main reason for the Blazers' struggles this season. Imagine if this Portland team was healthy. You'd have a starting lineup of Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Rodney Hood, Zach Collins and Jusuf Nurkic with Hassan Whiteside, Carmelo Anthony, Kent Bazemore and Anfernee Simons as the main reserves. That's a good team. I don't think the Blazers would be at the top of the West with the Lakers and Clippers (when they’re at full strength), but they'd be somewhere in the mix below those two teams with the Nuggets, Rockets, Clippers, Jazz and Mavericks. Injuries are definitely reasons No. 1, 2 and 3. But something else is off, too. As much as this team has been hurt by injuries, the Blazers still have a Top 10 player in Lillard, a Top 30 player in McCollum and a couple of serviceable (if flawed) starters in Anthony and Whiteside. A team with that level of talent, even with no legitimate fifth starter and no depth, shouldn’t be losing games at home to the Pelicans and Suns, let alone losing by 24 points to the Knicks. A team with Lillard and McCollum should be able to separate itself from the lower rungs of the Western Conference. The Blazers haven't, so even though I'm not dismissing the considerable impact of Portland's injuries, I can’t give the Blazers a complete pass.
Orlando: It's a lot things, but injuries are at the top of the list. There's plenty of blame to go around, especially after a few of those inexcusable losses to some of the league’s worst teams. There lies the frustration for Rip City. Defense and rebounding has been a major issue and the offense hasn’t been as good as it was last year. Players like Anthony Tolliver, Mario Hezonja and Kent Bazemore were expected to come in and deliver on a consistent basis. That hasn’t happened. Shots aren’t falling and they’re being asked to take on different roles because of all the injuries. If Whiteside isn’t pulling down rebounds, the Blazers are getting beat on the boards. Coach Stotts stuck with some lineups longer than he should and the offense has been stagnant at times. There are lots of things this team should be doing better, from the front office to the players. They should have a better record, but all those injuries are the main reason why the Blazers are in this position and it’s impacting everything.
2. We’re now less than a month away from the trade deadline. We touched on this in our last podcast but let’s make it a question this time. Do you think the Blazers will make a move for a top-of-the-line forward (i.e. Kevin Love) or does the organization settle for role players to better fill out this roster?
Jared: I think the Blazers are more likely to make a big move at the deadline than trade for a role player or two. This is the moment for Portland's front office. They have these big expiring contracts, they have all their first-round draft picks going forward and they have some intriguing young players they can include in trade offers. If Portland strikes out trying to make a big move, I think they're more likely to keep Hassan Whiteside and Kent Bazemore the rest of the season and go into the offseason with some cap space to work with. I still think the Blazers will ultimately be the team that trades for Kevin Love. Portland reportedly tried to trade for him two summers ago. He reportedly wants to play for the Blazers. There's some smoke there. If the Blazers don't trade for Love, the only other top-of-the-line forwards who might be on the market are Robert Covington and Danilo Gallinari. If Covington is available, he'll be a hot commodity and could generate a bidding war. If the Blazers were willing to take back Gorgui Dieng and include some draft compensation, they'd have a chance. Trading for Gallinari is a big risk because he could leave this summer as an unrestricted free agent. Do you give up a first-round pick if there’s a chance he doesn't stick around? Seems unlikely.
Orlando: I think we're all in agreement that a trade is coming. It makes the most sense. Yahoo Sports' Chris Haynes says it's hard for him to believe Kent Bazemore and Hassan Whiteside are in Portland after the trade deadline. That’s a lot of money that could return a big name like Kevin Love. I wonder who else is out there, though. The Blazers do a great job of not leaking much information, so it has many of us guessing. It seems like it's just as realistic they bring in multiple players that aren't All-Star caliber, but fill needs like defending and perimeter shooting. I won't be surprised when they go that route of settling for role players, but this is a chance to swing for the fences and bring in a player they likely couldn't get via free agency.
Nate: I feel my blood boiling again. With regards to the trade deadline, I’ve said the Blazers finally need to push their chips all in toward the goal of winning a championship over the next three years. I believe Portland needs to make a move for a top of the line forward in order to compete for a championship. They’re not going to get an opportunity in free agency or the draft to do that. But outside of Kevin Love, is there another high-level forward that will be available? There may not be. So, I think Olshey will ultimately go with filling out the roster with role players. And if that happens, Blazers fans should be disappointed. Even with a deep bench, I don’t believe a starting lineup of Nurkic, Collins, Hood, McCollum and Lillard can compete with the LeBron and Anthony Davis-led Lakers or the Kawhi Leonard, Paul George-led Clippers.
3. The Blazers play four games between now and our next podcast. They finish their five-game road trip tonight at the Minnesota Timberwolves, have home games Saturday against the Milwaukee Bucks and Monday against the Charlotte Hornets, and begin a three-game road trip Wednesday in Houston. Which games do the Blazers win and which do they lose?
Orlando: Let's see if they can parlay the morale boost in Toronto into consecutive victories. I think they'll play well in Minnesota and win to end this road trip on a winning note. They're favorites to beat a Charlotte team that has lost eight of its last 10, so I'll take Portland in that one too. The Bucks and Rockets are good teams with winning records, so you know the drill. This is a 2-2 week for the Blazers.
Nate: I'm going to say the Blazers go 1-3. The Timberwolves, even without Karl-Anthony Towns, nearly beat the Blazers in Portland last month. I think Minnesota wins at home. I'll take the Bucks and Rockets, for obvious reasons. And I'll say Portland gets a win against the Hornets at home.
Jared: Even though the Blazers came back to beat a depleted Raptors team in their last game, I don’t feel any differently about this team. They’re not a good team. They still don’t rebound. They still can’t defend. And their offense is too inconsistent to carry them when they can't do anything else right. They'll lose the games to the two good teams, the Bucks and Rockets. The problem is we can't even trust the Blazers to beat bad the teams now. The Timberwolves and Hornets are both bad teams. Minnesota has won four of seven after a brutal 12-game losing streak. Their defense has been surprisingly stout. I think Portland loses that one. The Hornets will be playing the second of a back-to-back in Portland, so I’m going to give the Blazers the nod here. It's a 1-3 week for Portland.
SEASON PREDICTIONS RECORDS
- Orlando: 24-11
- Jared: 22-13
- Nate: 21-14
MEET THE 3-ON-3 BLAZERS TEAM
Jared Cowley is a digital producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Jared has written about the Jazz and Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
