PORTLAND, Ore. — The Portland Trail Blazers have lost six of seven and start a six-game road trip Saturday.
At 4-8, the Blazers playing well below expectations. Before the season, the front office, coaches and players talked about this being the deepest, most talented team in the Damian Lillard-Terry Stotts era. There was public discussion of championship contention.
Right now, Portland doesn't look like a playoff team, let alone a championship contender. They're banged up, have no legitimate power forward on the roster, and are beset by multiple players performing well below expectations and career norms.
It's still early, just 12 games into the season. But in the tough Western Conference, the Blazers have to start playing better — and winning — or they'll far too far behind to climb their way back into the playoff picture.
On this week's episode of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast, we discuss whether this team is as bad as it looks, talk about the most disappointing player on the Blazers so far this season, and make predictions for the next three games.
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1. Is this team as bad as it looks, or are they still a good team just treading water until reinforcements arrive?
Orlando: It's getting hard to defend this team. I can understand losing some of these games to good teams, but losses to the Warriors and Kings who had depleted rosters are inexcusable. What bothered me most about their most recent loss to the Raptors was how they finished. I understand shots aren't always going to fall, but they were getting beat to loose balls and simply got outworked. I wanted to see a team that was desperate to win and scrapping to stay in it. I didn't see that late on Wednesday night. Head coach Terry Stotts called it "disappointing." I do think this team will figure it out, they're too talented, but will it be too late? They may not look like it on paper, but they sure are playing like a 4-8 team that has lost six of its last seven. There's still a long way to go and I think there's still plenty of time to turn it around.
Nate: This question may be the one I've waffled on most in the history of this podcast. My eyes and brain tell me that with the players currently taking the floor, this is a bad team. But I also recognize that I've been quick to jump ship in the past, only to have the team, under Lillard and Stotts' leadership, make a fool out of me. But I'm going to jump ship again. This is a bad team. With the injuries, there is a lack of talent. They play up and down to competition. They can't hold on to leads when they get them, and they struggle to close games in the fourth quarter. Those are all signs of a bad team. Portland's fourth-quarter defensive rating is 122.8, the worst by far in the NBA. The Blazers have been involved in nine "clutch" games, defined as a five-point game or less with less than five minutes left in the game. That's the most of any team in the NBA. Portland is 3-6 in those games and their opponents are shooting 54.8% from the field in those situations. Good teams find ways to win and bad teams find ways to lose. So far, the Blazers have been the latter and I don’t see where improvement comes with this roster.
Jared: Only four teams, the Wizards, Pelicans, Knicks and Warriors have worse records than the 4-8 Blazers right now. Are the Blazers the fifth-worst team in the NBA? No. I don’t think so. Point differential and net rating are a more accurate barometer of a team’s talent level and the Blazers rank 18th in both of those categories. That sounds more accurate. The Blazers right now are not a good team. They’re not even an average team. They’re below average with little obvious hope for improvement. How long can the Blazers realistically wait to make a move? This team needs a power forward. What if they wait until Dec. 15 (when players who signed in the offseason are eligible to be traded)? Based on their current pace, the Blazers would be 9-17 at that point. What if they wait until the middle of January? They’d be 14-28. What if they wait until the actual trade deadline on Feb. 6? They’d be 17-33. If they’re that far gone, they won't make a move to improve the team. If anything, they'd be sellers at the deadline. The front office can't wait too much longer. This team needs help.
2. Who has been the most disappointing player for the Blazers so far this season?
Nate: I'm going to go with Kent Bazemore because I believe CJ McCollum will find himself and I didn't have high expectations for Hassan Whiteside. Going into the season, I thought Bazemore would be the player who would most impress Blazers fans. I thought he would be a true 3-and-D wing. And while he's had moments making impactful plays on defense, and he hit the 3-pointers against Atlanta in overtime, I've been disappointed with his performance overall. Foul troubles have plagued Bazemore so far this season. I expected that he would be a lockdown defender coming off the bench. He hasn't been. Instead, his defensive rating is at 108.6, on par with Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons. Offensively, he’s shooting just 36% from the field and has an offensive rating of 103.6, only better than Skal Labissiere and Anthony Tolliver among players getting regular minutes. I thought he might play himself into the starting lineup ahead of Rodney Hood at some point this season. He hasn't been close to doing that with his performance so far this season.
Jared: It has to be CJ McCollum. His performance has been most disappointing because after his stellar playoff showing last season, the expectation was that he’d take a step forward this season. I thought he might challenge for an All-Star berth. But even though his counting stats look OK — 20.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists — his inefficiency has really hurt the Blazers. He's shooting 41% from the field and 31% from 3, well below his career norms. For a team dealing with injuries and the integration of new players, the Blazers really need McCollum to be at the top of his game to start the season, and he hasn’t been. We know McCollum isn't a strong defender, but his offense is usually so good, it makes up for it. But when his offense isn’t clicking, he really hurts the Blazers. I'm not worried about McCollum. I expect him to pick it up on offense and probably soon. But so far, he's definitely been the most disappointing player for Portland.
Orlando: Big picture, you gotta start at the top and work your way down. You gotta start this conversation with CJ McCollum. His shooting slump could not come at a worse time. For the season, he's shooting a career low in field goal percentage and from 3-point range. The past couple of games he appears to have figured it out, the mid-range is dropping again and that's a good sign, but they need more from him. Defensively, he's got to pick it up. If he's not holding his own on D and the shots aren't falling to make up for it, that’s bad news in Rip City. The Toronto game was promising, seeing him get a block and take a charge. He was the only starter with a positive +/- against the Raptors. This roster is trying to find its way, but CJ has to be consistent while the rest of the squad catches up.
3. The Blazers start a six-game road trip on Saturday. Before we meet for our next podcast, they play three games, at San Antonio on Saturday, at Houston on Monday and at New Orleans on Tuesday. Which games do the Blazers win and which do they lose?
Jared: The Spurs aren't playing well right now. They've lost three in a row and five of six. They'll be playing the second game of a road-to-home back-to-back against the Blazers. They have a negative net rating at home. I don't know why I keep picking Portland to win games, but I'm going to pick them to beat the Spurs. I think Portland definitely loses to the Rockets. Houston is 4-1 at home and have won five in a row, including an impressive win Wednesday against the Clippers. The Blazers should beat the Pelicans. This is the kind of game Portland has to win. The Pelicans are bad. They've won only two games this season. They're 1-4 at home and haven't been competitive. I'll pick Portland to win that game.
Orlando: I might regret this, but I'm going to stay the course and say the Blazers go 2-1 this week. The Blazers find a way to beat San Antonio in a close game. The Spurs have been playing almost as bad as the Blazers have lately. I've got them taking a loss at Houston and bouncing back with a win at New Orleans.
Nate: Oh boy. Things can really get ugly if this road trip goes south. I'm going to say they go 1-2 in the first half of the trip. The Spurs are struggling right now, losing six of their last eight games. This could be a game Portland steals on the road. But with the way Portland has played to start the season, I'm not going to give them the benefit of the doubt. Spurs win. Houston is hot right now, winners of five in a row. I don't see Portland's defense limiting the Rockets' offense. And the Pelicans are one of the few teams with a worse record than the Blazers right now. They're awful on defense. This is a game the Blazers should win, so I'll pick them. But they should have also won road games against Golden State and Sacramento, and we saw how those went.
SEASON PREDICTIONS RECORDS
- Nate: 8-4
- Orlando: 7-5
- Jared: 6-6
MEET THE 3-ON-3 BLAZERS TEAM
Jared Cowley is a digital producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Jared has written about the Jazz and Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
