PORTLAND, Ore. — The first Portland Trail Blazers' season of the post-Damian Lillard era came to a close Sunday in Sacramento, with the Blazers losing their 61st game, the second-most losses in a season for the franchise.
It was a season beset by injuries to many of the team's veteran players and core young talent. The Blazers' top 10 players at the start of the season — Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Shaedon Sharpe, Deandre Ayton, Malcolm Brogdon, Scoot Henderson, Toumani Camara, Jabari Walker, Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams III — lost a combined 319 games to injury.
The injuries interrupted the Blazers' plan this season to focus on development and data collection. Wins didn't really matter; the team is in the start of a rebuild, losing is expected. But questions about development and how certain player combinations work (or don't work) lacked definitive answers due to a shortage of on-court time together because of injuries.
Case in point: Simons, Grant, Sharpe, Ayton, Brogdon and Henderson played a combined four games and 19 total minutes together. The Blazers' backcourt of the future, Henderson and Sharpe, played a combined 22 games and 320 minutes together. That's not nearly enough time to generate meaningful data about lineups and player combinations.
So now, with incomplete data from a season lost to injuries, the team embarks on its first offseason after the Lillard trade. At exit interviews on Monday, general manager Joe Cronin mentioned the small data sample from this season because of injuries, but he said as a talent and personnel evaluator, sometimes decisions have to be made based off small samples because that's the data that's available.
When asked about the team's focus this offseason, Cronin said the Blazers want to keep adding talent and address some deficiencies in the roster.
"We need more shooters, we've got to open up the floor for guys. We need more playmaking. We need more defenders. There are a lot of things we need," he said. "So we're going to continue to evaluate how do we supplement the existing group that we have, but at the same time, not ignoring that we're not good enough yet. We don't have enough talent. We need to keep boosting our talent base. It might be our most important thing we do this summer is keep adding to this talent base."
Time stamps for the interviews in video above:
- 0:00 - Malcolm Brogdon, guard
- 7:43 - Jabari Walker, forward
- 19:38 - Toumani Camara, forward
- 28:48 - Matisse Thybulle, guard
- 37:12 - Anfernee Simons, guard
- 51:20 - Deandre Ayton, center
- 1:00:00 - Dalano Banton, guard
- 1:05:44 - Joe Cronin, general manager
Key offseason dates
- May 12: NBA draft lottery
- June 26-27: NBA draft
- July 1: Unofficial start of free agency
- July 6: Official start of free agency
- July 12-22: NBA summer league in Las Vegas
Draft
The Blazers finished tied with the Charlotte Hornets for the third-worst record in the NBA and the third-best NBA lottery odds. The two teams will split the lottery odds for both teams evenly, but because Portland lost a coin flip with Charlotte on April 22, Portland will occupy the fourth position in the draft lottery and have slightly lower odds of moving up in the lottery than Charlotte. Portland has a 13.2% chance of getting the No. 1 pick (compared to Charlotte's 13.3% chance) and a 50% chance of a top-four pick (compared to Charlotte's 50.3% chance). Portland's pick could land as high as No. 1 and as low as No. 8. Here are the percentages for where the Blazers' selection will end up (data from tankathon.com):
- No. 1 - 13.2%
- No. 2 - 12.8%
- No. 3 - 12.3%
- No. 4 - 11.7%
- No. 5 - 6.8%
- No. 6 - 24.6%
- No. 7 - 16.4%
- No. 8 - 2.2%
The Blazers also own the Golden State Warriors' first-round draft pick this year. The Warriors finished 10th in the West and lost to the Sacramento Kings in the play-in, so Portland gets a second lottery pick in this year's draft. Golden State lost a coin flip with the Sacramento Kings (the two teams had identical records), so Portland will get the 14th overall pick from Golden State unless the Warriors move up into the Top 4 in the draft lottery. Golden State has a 0.7% chance of landing the top pick and a 3.4% chance of moving into the Top 4.
Most draft experts project this as a weak draft, saying it lacks both elite talent at the top and depth of talent throughout. That doesn't mean there won't be good players to come out of this draft. The 2013 draft was considered weak, but teams still managed to find All-NBA players like Giannis Antetokounmpo (drafted 15th overall) and Rudy Gobert (drafted 27th overall). Portland will need to rely on its scouting department and front office to find the right talent in this draft.
Cronin said Monday that he and his staff look at this as an opportunity.
"This draft, there doesn't seem to be a ton of consensus. We view that as an opportunity," he said. "That might allow us to find a player that someone didn't value as highly. We might be able to get additional value beyond or ahead of where they were selected. Maybe we can find an incredible steal or surprise due to the uncertainty and confusion that can come with not a chalk draft. There's a lot of changes that can happen. It's going to open up opportunities for trades, it's going to open up a lot of movement within those pick ranges. For us, we view it as an exciting opportunity."
Portland also has two picks in the second round, No. 34 and No. 40 overall, the fourth and 10th selections in the second round.
As of April 6, ESPN ranks the top three players in this draft as Zaccharie Risacher, a 6-9 forward out of Bourg, France; Alexandre Sarr, a 7-foot-1 big man out of Perth, Australia; and Donovan Clingan, a 7-2 center out of UConn.
Free agency
The Blazers' roster is already pretty full for next season. According to spotrac.com, 11 players have guaranteed contracts (Ayton, Grant, Simons, Brogdon, Williams, Thybulle, Henderson, Sharpe, Kris Murray, Duop Reath and Rayan Rupert) and three players have non-guaranteed contracts (Walker, Camara and Dalano Banton) next season.
Before accounting for potentially guaranteeing any of those three contracts and the rookie-scale contracts for any Blazers draft picks, Portland is about $4 million away from the luxury-tax line. If they guarantee the contracts and draft and sign four rookies, the Blazers project as a tax team. Passing the luxury-tax threshold triggers roster-building restrictions, so it doesn't make sense for an NBA team not expected to make the playoffs, let alone a rebuilding franchise, to pay the luxury tax. It stands to reason that the Blazers will make some moves to clear salary and make sure they stay under the tax threshold.
Will Portland be a player in NBA free agency? It's possible. Depending on moves the Blazers make, they could free up enough space under the luxury-tax line to to gain access to the non-taxpayer mid-level exception of $12.9 million. They could also have access to the bi-annual exception of $4.7 million. Whether they use either of those exceptions remains to be seen.
Trades
If Portland is going to stay under the luxury tax line, it will likely be facilitated via trades. The Blazers have expensive veteran players that could interest other teams. Depending on how trades are structured, Portland could bring back less salary in a trade to clean up their books.
Those veterans include Brogdon ($22.5 million next season in final year of his deal) and Grant ($29.8 million next season, then two years left on his contract plus a player option), along with younger veterans like Williams ($12.4 million next season, then one year left), Thybulle ($11 million next season then a player option) and even Simons ($25.9 million next season, then one year left) and Ayton ($34 million next season, then one year left).
There's no guarantee the Blazers trade any of those players, but it's possible some of them could be on the move as the Blazers look to clear some salary and continue to shape their roster around their young core.
The Blazers also have four picks in this summer's NBA draft. It's unlikely they add four rookies to the roster for next season, so expect Portland to trade one or more of their draft selections.
Head coach
Next season will be the final guaranteed year on Chauncey Billups' contract. The Blazers hold a team option on his contract for the 2025-26 season. The Blazers' head coach has not had a successful record in his three years with the team, winning 81 games against 165 losses, a .329 winning percentage, though the rosters he's had to coach have been short on talent.
During exit interviews, Billups said he wants the team to win next season and said he and general manager Joe Cronin will discuss that as they make offseason plans.
"For me, personally, I just hope that we can be more gearing towards winning, trying to win first, and then develop along the way, which is what I thought I'd be able to do this year, but I wasn't," Billups said about how he'd like to see next season play out. "Obviously, we got a lot of picks in the draft this year and we got a lot of young guys on our team that are developing and doing well. Those are decisions and conversations that after the season, which is now, we’ll start having, Joe and I. But I really hope we can start trying to really win."
Cronin on Monday said that Billups will be back next season as the Blazers' head coach and praised his leadership and work within all levels of the organization. He was asked if he and Billups are on the same page when it comes to their expectations for next season.
"We're on the same page that on a given night, we want to be really, really competitive. We want to keep taking steps in the right direction. I think that's an important part of this," he said. "Moving forward, our goal is to keep progressing. The rate (of progression) can get complicated. The rate matters on how much are our guys developing, how quickly is Scoot (Henderson) coming along, how quickly is Shaedon (Sharpe) coming along? What transactions do we make this offseason? What does that look like? How talented can we become in the near future? We're going to have to recalibrate that after this offseason, and get a more accurate viewpoint of what is this roster really capable of."
Young development
When the Blazers traded Lillard, arguably the greatest player in franchise history, before the start of last season, they embarked on a rebuild centered around Henderson and Sharpe. Both players had up-and-down seasons.
Henderson struggled at the start, missed 20 games with various injuries, then finished the season strong, averaging 19.2 points, 8.1 assists and 3.5 rebounds over his final 13 games, while shooting 42.1% from the field, 39.7% from the 3-point line and 80.5% at the free-throw line.
Sharpe had some moments early in the season where he looked like a player on the rise, particularly a five-game stretch around the end of November and beginning of December when he averaged 26.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists. But he had core muscle surgery and missed the Blazers' final 44 games.
Both players go to work now in the offseason, when young players can target specific skills and often see the most improvement in their games. The development of Henderson and Sharpe is key to the Blazers' improvement.
During exit interviews (both players had their end-of-season interviews on Friday instead of Monday), Henderson said he plans to work on his handle, finishing at the rim through contact and shooting. He said he plans to watch a lot of film, too.
Sharpe said he plans to work this offseason on his pace, playmaking, getting stronger — working on his body so he can defend better — and hitting and making shots.
Correction: An earlier version of this article incorrectly used the term luxury tax instead of salary cap.
