PORTLAND, Ore. — During a conference call with reporters on Monday afternoon, Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts said the Blazers have "talked about changing up some things going into Game 5."
That's good. Stotts is a good coach, and good playoff coaches make adjustments after a loss. No matter what new schemes Stotts conceives before Game 5, the adjustment that will help the Blazers the most is something over which Stotts has very little control.
The Blazers need more from Damian Lillard. It may sound greedy to ask for more from a player averaging 27.3 points, 6.3 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.8 steals per game in this series, but the Blazers need Lillard to be better.
Lillard has been good against the Nuggets, but he hasn't been great. And the difference between a good Lillard and a great Lillard could be the difference between the Blazers' season ending against the Nuggets and their first Western Conference Finals berth in 18 seasons.
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What has kept Lillard from being great in this series is the 3-point shot. The rest of his stats look great. Superstar level. But Lillard, who shot 37% from the 3-point line during the regular season and 46.9% during the first-round series against the Thunder, is shooting just 24.6% from deep in the first four games of this series.
The best Lillard has shot from distance in this series was in Game 1, when he made 33.3% of his attempts (4 of 12). In the three games since, he's shot 14.3% (1 for 7 in Game 2), 22.2% (2 for 9 in Game 3), and 28.6% (2 for 7 in Game 4).
Lillard's 3-point slump is partly a byproduct of good defense by the Nuggets. But that's not the whole story. Lillard is also missing a lot of open 3-pointers.
Against the Thunder in the first round, 72% of Lillard's 54 3-point attempts were either open (no defender closer than 4 feet) or wide open (no defender closer than 6 feet).
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The Nuggets' defense has been a bit more on the ball. Only 51.4% of the 3-point attempts they've allowed Lillard to shoot have been open or wide open.
Credit to the Nuggets for keeping a closer eye on Lillard. He's tough to contain and they've done it better than most. During the regular season, 72.3% of Lillard's 639 3-point attempts were either open or wide open.
During the four regular-season games against the Nuggets, 77.4% of Lillard's 31 3-point attempts were open or wide open. So Denver is limiting Lillard's open looks better in the playoffs than they did during the regular season.
SERIES SCHEDULE
Best-of-7 series tied 2-2; all times Pacific; x=if necessary
(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (3) Portland Trail Blazers
- Game 1 (at DEN): Nuggets 121, Trail Blazers 113 (box score)
- Game 2 (at DEN): Trail Blazers 97, Nuggets 90 (box score)
- Game 3 (at POR): Trail Blazers 140, Nuggets 137, 4 OT (box score)
- Game 4 (at POR): Nuggets 116, Trail Blazers 112 (box score)
- Game 5 (at DEN): Tuesday, 7:30 p.m., TNT
- Game 6 (at POR): Thursday, 7:30 p.m., ESPN
- x-Game 7 (at DEN): Sunday, time TBD, ESPN
Denver's defense has been effective against Lillard, and the Nuggets deserve credit for that. But again, it's not the whole story. Lillard is also missing the open looks he's getting.
During the regular season, Lillard shot 38.5% on open or wide open 3-point attempts. In the first round against the Thunder, he was even better, shooting 51.3% on open looks from distance.
Against the Nuggets, he's shooting 22.2% when he's open or wide open from behind the 3-point line. Lillard is giving up a lot of points in this series just by missing open 3-pointers.
He doesn't have to maintain his unreal shooting percentage from the Thunder series. Just matching his regular-season percentages when he's open would make a huge difference. In a series this tight, in which the total point differential in the four games has been just two points (!), Lillard giving up those points by continually misfiring on open 3-pointers is a big deal.
Lillard is a superstar and the expectations that come with superstardom are high. Consistency is expected. Moments of brilliance are expected. The Blazers got that in the first round, and subsequently, they ran past an overmatched Thunder squad.
While Lillard has been good in this series against the Nuggets, he hasn't been great. He hasn't had a moment yet where he put the Blazers on his back and wills them to victory. Portland has to hope that moment comes in Game 5.
Jared Cowley writes about the Trail Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. He's also the co-host of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast (listen here). You can reach him on Twitter @jaredcowley.