PORTLAND, Ore. — The Blazers are in need of an upgrade at wing, but that’s easier said than done.
The Blazers have three players who play the majority of the team's minutes at small forward: Evan Turner, Maurice Harkless and Jake Layman. Not one of them ranks among the Top 25 small forwards in real plus-minus.
Of the three, Layman ranks the highest at 26, followed by Harkless at 33 and Turner at 82. All three have a negative real plus-minus on offense. Layman’s offensive real plus-minus ranks 33rd, Harkless 62nd and Turner 72nd among small forwards.
Small forward is the team’s biggest weakness and the main barrier to Portland progressing past its current status as a one-and-done playoff squad.
The answer to this problem doesn't appear to be on the current roster, so the solution must be found elsewhere, either through trade, the draft, or free agency. The draft and free agency are flawed options because of the Blazers’ draft position and lack of cap space, and really won't come into play until the offseason anyway.
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Which leaves the trade market, and the Feb. 7 trade deadline. For this exercise, we’ll look at teams that have wings who may be available for trade and are potential sellers at the deadline.
Sellers
Atlanta Hawks
Kent Bazemore
- Height/weight: 6-foot-5, 201 pounds
- Age: 29
- Salary: $18.1 million (2018-19); $19.3M player option (2019-20)
The Hawks have already had talks with teams about Bazemore. The veteran wing is averaging 14.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.7 steals and 0.9 blocks per game in 27.4 minutes per game this season. He’s slumped as a shooter, making just 33 percent of his 3-point attempts this season, but he’s a career 36-percent shooter from distance and shot 39 percent last season. Bazemore is expensive, and will likely opt into his $19.3 million player option next season. Bazemore ranks 39th among small forwards in real plus-minus (49th on offense and 29th in defense). At 6-5, he’s undersized for a small forward, but he’s a strong, rangy defender, and his veteran presence could be a plus.
Taurean Prince
- Height/weight: 6-8, 220 pounds
- Age: 24
- Salary: $2.6M (2018-19); $3.5M (2019-20); $4.8M qualifying offer (2020-21)
Atlanta is also listening to offers for Prince, but considering his age and affordable salary, it would probably take an aggressive offer to pry him away from the Hawks. Prince has good size for the position and is having a pretty good season statistically, averaging 13.9 points, 4.0 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.1 steals in 27 minutes per game, while shooting 43 percent from the field and 36 percent from the 3-point line. Advanced stats aren’t as big a fan. He rates as a negative on offense and defense in real plus-minus, ranking 77th overall among small forwards (67th in offense and 71st in defense). He’s an intriguing young player.
New York Knicks
Courtney Lee
- Height/weight: 6-5, 215 pounds
- Age: 33
- Salary: $12.2M (2018-19); $12.8M (2019-20)
Lee isn’t playing much for the Knicks this season, who are giving minutes to their younger players. Lee can probably still contribute to a team in need of veteran wing help. He averaged 12.0 points, 2.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.1 steals in 30.4 minutes per game last season and shot 41 percent from the 3-point line. He’s a career 39 percent 3-point shooter. He’s lost a step on defense, but would probably still defend at an adequate level in a good defensive system.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Rodney Hood
- Height/weight: 6-8, 206 pounds
- Age: 26
- Salary: $3.5M (2018-19)
Hood is generating interest from several teams leading up to the trade deadline. He hasn’t lived up to expectations in Cleveland after the Cavaliers acquired him from the Jazz at last season’s deadline. He was better in Utah, where he averaged nearly 17 points per game and shot 39 percent from the 3-point line before the trade. This season, he’s averaging 12.7 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 0.9 steals in 27.3 minutes per game, while shooting 44 percent from the field and 36 percent from the 3-point line. He’s long projected as a 3-and-D small forward, but has yet to show much effort on defense. That and some concerns about his attitude last season stand out as red flags. He's an intriguing, if risky, trade option.
Phoenix Suns
TJ Warren
- Height/weight: 6-8, 215 pounds
- Age: 25
- Salary: $11.8M (2018-19); $10.8M (2019-20); $11.8M (2020-21); $12.7M (2021-22)
The Suns may not be willing to trade Warren, who has had a breakout season in Phoenix. He’s averaging 18 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 1.2 steals in 31.6 minutes per game. He’s also made himself into a great shooter, making 49 percent of his field goals and 43 percent of his 3-point attempts. His long-distance accuracy is a surprise, considering he shot below 30 percent in three of his first four seasons. The reason the Suns might be willing to move him is because they traded for Kelly Oubre Jr., who plays the same position, and they’ve invested heavy draft capital in two other players — Josh Jackson (fourth overall pick in 2017) and Mikal Bridges (10th overall pick in 2018) — at his position. The Blazers should see if he’s available for the right price.
On the bubble
Memphis Grizzlies
Kyle Anderson
- Height/weight: 6-9, 230 pounds
- Age: 25
- Salary: $8.6M (2018-19); $9.1M (2019-20); $9.5M (2020-21); $9.9M (2021-22)
Anderson is one of the best defensive small forwards in basketball, though his offense is anemic. He’s like the Andre Roberson of small forwards. He ranks third in defensive real plus-minus among small forwards, behind only Paul George and Robert Covington. He ranks 75th in offensive real plus-minus at his position. He averages 7.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, three assists and 1.3 steals in 29.7 minutes per game for Memphis. And he’s just a 27 percent 3-point shooter. He’s like Al-Farouq Aminu but better at defense and worse at shooting. If the Blazers really wanted to focus only on defense at small forward, they could kick the tires on Anderson. If the Grizzlies want to blow it up and build around Jaren Jackson Jr., they might be willing to move Anderson. But is that the upgrade the Blazers are looking for?
Washington Wizards
Otto Porter Jr.
- Height/weight: 6-8, 198 pounds
- Age: 25
- Salary: $26.0M (2018-19); $27.3M (2019-20); $28.5M player option (2020-21)
Unless an unexpected superstar becomes available, Porter is the most talented wing who might be available on the trade market. He’s also the most expensive, which is likely the only reason he may be available. If the Blazers want to upgrade at the wing, Porter is an ideal fit. He’s a great 3-point shooter (40.3 percent this season and 40.4 percent for his career) and one of the better defenders at his position (he ranks 19th among small forwards in defensive real plus-minus). He’s averaging 13.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.5 steals in 28.9 minutes per game this season. He makes a lot of money, but he would thrive playing with two players — Damian Lillard and Jusuf Nurkic — who demand double teams. The Wizards reportedly don’t want to trade Porter for cap relief and future assets. If that’s true, it might be hard for the Blazers to make a winning offer for Porter. But he’s an intriguing name to watch.
Orlando Magic
Terrence Ross
- Height/weight: 6-7, 206 pounds
- Age: 27
- Salary: $10.5M (2018-19)
Ross, who played at Jefferson High School in Portland as a freshman and sophomore before moving to Maryland, and then starred at the University of Washington, is having the best season of his seven-year NBA career. Ross is averaging 14.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 0.9 steals per game, while shooting 44 percent from the field and 38 percent from the 3-point line. Ross is a career 37-percent 3-point shooter. Ross isn’t a plus defender and may be better suited to play shooting guard than small forward, but he's worth a look.
Aaron Gordon
- Height/weight: 6-9, 220 pounds
- Age: 23
- Salary: $21.6M (2018-19); $19.9M (2019-20); $18.1M (2020-21); $16.4M (2021-22)
Gordon plays power forward for the Magic, but if you put him on the Blazers, he would be a good fit next to forward Al-Farouq Aminu. Next to Porter, Gordon is the most talented player on this list, and it would probably take no less than CJ McCollum going back to Orlando to bring Gordon to Portland. Gordon is intriguing. His scoring has gone down slightly this season (15.8 points per game after averaging 17.6 last season), but his efficiency has improved. He’s shooting 45 percent from the field and 36 percent from the 3-point line. He also rebounds well (7.6 per game), is an underrated passer (3.3 assists per game) and would add a level of high-flying athleticism that would make Blazers fans giddy. He’s not a good defender yet, but he shows flashes and has the tools to make it happen. He’s only 23 and is signed to a reasonable contract that decreases in value each of the next three seasons. He has his flaws, but if Neil Olshey is willing to entertain trading McCollum, he could do worse than Aaron Gordon.
Dallas Mavericks
Harrison Barnes
- Height/weight: 6-8, 225 pounds
- Age: 26
- Salary: $24.1M (2018-19); $25.1M player option (2019-20)
Would the Mavericks be interested in trading Barnes? He’s averaging 17.9 points per game this season, his lowest total since joining Dallas in 2016, and his efficiency has taken a hit. His 41-percent field-goal percentage is his lowest since his second season. Does Dallas look at him as a piece that fits alongside Luka Doncic going forward? Barnes is a solid forward with a good 3-point shot and the ability to be a plus defender. He’s a career 37 percent 3-point shooter and is making 40 percent of his 6.5 attempts per game this season. He’s a player who would do well in Terry Stotts’ offense. It would be hard to build a trade that works for both teams, because CJ McCollum is too much to give up for Barnes unless the Mavericks gave up a draft pick, too. But he’s a name to consider.
Wes Matthews
- Height/weight: 6-5, 220 pounds
- Age: 32
- Salary: $18.6M (2018-19)
The former Trail Blazer is getting up there in age and miles on those legs, but he’s still an effective player. He’s averaging 13.3 points, 2.4 rebounds and 2.4 assists in 30.1 minutes per game for the Mavericks this season. And he’s still a knockdown 3-point shooter, making 38 percent of his 5.9 attempts. He’d make sense as a veteran wing to add some toughness, defense and shot-making to the Blazers lineup. If the Mavericks trade him, what are they looking for in return? If they’re uninterested in bringing back long-term salary that eliminates some of their cap space this offseason, it will be tough for the Blazers to put together a trade package that matches Matthews’ $18.6 million.
Miami Heat
Josh Richardson
- Height: 6-6, 200 pounds
- Age: 25
- Salary: $9.4M (2018-19); $10.1M (2019-20); $10.9M (2020-21); $11.6M player option (2021-22)
He’s not a small forward, but he'd be a great target for the Trail Blazers. Richardson is one of the best young shooting guards in the NBA and on a reasonable contract. To get him from Miami, the Blazers would have to be willing to part with McCollum and take on one of the Heat’s bad contracts. But putting Richardson next to Lillard might be worth it. He’s not as good an offensive player as McCollum. He’s shooting 41 percent from the field and 38 percent from the 3-point line this season. But he’s a more complete player. Richardson averages 3.9 assists and 3.8 rebounds. And his defense is a strength instead of a weakness. He has positive rankings in both offensive and defensive real plus-minus, where he ranks fourth overall among shooting guards. If the Blazers offered McCollum for Richardson and Tyler Johnson (who makes $19.2 million this season and has a player option for $19.2 million next season), that could be a good trade for both teams.
Jared Cowley writes about the Trail Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. He's also the co-host of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast (listen here). You can reach him on Twitter @jaredcowley.