PORTLAND, Ore. — The Portland Trail Blazers are on a modest two-game winning streak and have won seven of their past 11 games.
Portland (12-16) is still four games under .500 but because the bottom half of the Western Conference isn't very good, the Blazers are only a half-game behind the Sacramento Kings (12-15) for eighth place in the West.
Furthermore, after starting 1-4 at the Moda Center, the Blazers have won five of seven in Portland to get back to .500 at home.
They're baby steps, but Portland is trying to claw its way back after a tough start to the season. Just a reminder of how bad it was at one point: After the first 17 games of the season, the Blazers had won only five times. Things are getting better.
On this week's episode of the 3-on-3 Blazers podcast, we discuss what has been going right for Portland lately (other than an easier schedule), debate whether the Blazers have the best backcourt in the NBA, and make predictions for the next SEVEN games.
Do you have any questions or comments for the 3-on-3 Blazers team? Email them to 3on3blazers@gmail.com!
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1. The Blazers have won seven of 11. It’s easy (and accurate) to point at the team’s favorable schedule for their improved record over the past three weeks. But, aside from that, elaborate on something that has been going well for the Blazers during this stretch, at least enough to help the Blazers start beating the bad teams again.
Orlando: This is a pivotal time in the Blazers schedule and lately, they're taking advantage of it with wins over bad teams. One bright spot during this stretch has been the play of Hassan Whiteside. He's held up his end of the deal with the Blazers so far this season. Check out what he's done in December. His numbers have gone up. He's playing more minutes, his field goal percentage and free throw percentage have improved. Through eight games in December, he's averaging 18 points and 14 rebounds. Whiteside is playing at a high level and has been a big reason why Portland is staying in games and winning the games they're supposed to. The Golden State game is the perfect example. I don't think they win without his season-high 23 rebounds. They need him to be a top-five rebounder to win and he's doing it. He deserves more credit than he's getting.
Nate: This question reeks of desperation for optimism. But let's go down the rabbit hole. I'm going to look at the last five games because I believe this Blazers team without Rodney Hood is different than the team with him. The best thing going for Portland is the starting lineup, with Kent Bazemore replacing Hood, continues to be effective, posting a +7.2 net rating. It's not quite as high as the +10.1 with Hood in the starting lineup, but still good. Every player has done something at an elite level during that five-game span. Damian Lillard, while averaging 25 points per game, has averaged 8.4 assists per game. CJ McCollum continues to score at an efficient rate, making 48% of his shots. Carmelo Anthony is shooting 45% on 3-point attempts. Hassan Whiteside is averaging an impressive 18 points, 14 rebounds and nearly 4 blocks per game. Kent Bazemore is playing stellar defense and has the best individual net rating. However, each of those players is playing 29 minutes or more per game. Can the starters continue to play at this high of a level with the number of minutes they're logging? If so, there's hope that Portland can be a consistent mediocre team before Nurkic returns.
Jared: I have to give credit to Carmelo Anthony. He continues to be much better than anybody expected him to be, averaging 16.8 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.7 blocks in 31.7 minutes per game. Plus, he's shooting 42% from the field and 41% from 3. When you think back to what the Blazers were getting from the power forward position before Melo, it makes his contribution even more impactful. More than anything, he's helped the offense be good enough to make up for a defense that continues to flounder. That's not enough to help the Blazers against good teams, but it's made the difference against mediocre teams and bad teams, which wasn't the case early in the season. Over the past 11 games, the Blazers are averaging 111.7 points per 100 possessions, which would rank fifth overall this season. If you look at the impact Anthony has had on his most important teammates, it's been mostly positive. Take a look:
CJ McCollum
- Before Melo: 21.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 43% FG, 36% 3P
- After Melo: 22.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 49% FG, 40% 3P
Hassan Whiteside
- Before Melo: 15.0 points, 11.8 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 58% FG
- After Melo: 16.9 points, 14.1 rebounds, 3.1 blocks, 66% FG
Damian Lillard
- Before Melo: 28.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, 7.1 assists, 45% FG, 36% 3P
- After Melo: 24.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 43% FG, 36% 3P
2. Buy or Sell: Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum make up the best backcourt in the NBA this season. Explain.
Nate: This season, I'm buying. The only other three backcourts I considered were Houston's James Harden and Russell Westbrook, Boston's Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown, and Toronto's Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry. All three of those other backcourts are new this season playing together and don't have the long-term consistency of Lillard and McCollum. That's one of the reasons I'm going to say the Blazers' backcourt is the best in the NBA this season. Damian Lillard is having one of the best seasons of his career, and you can make the argument that CJ McCollum, after a slow start to the season, is playing the best basketball of his career. Over the last 19 games, McCollum is averaging 23.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4 assists and shooting 49% from the field, all of which would be career-highs if he could keep up that pace for the rest of the season. Lillard and McCollum have also kept the Blazers afloat despite the injuries that have taken place all around them.
Jared: The competition is in Houston with James Harden and Russell Westbrook; Boston with Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown; and Toronto with Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet. I'm a disciple of ESPN's Real Plus-Minus and their ratings finally came out this week. Lillard and McCollum rank 13th and 14th overall, and in RPM wins (the estimated number of wins each player has contributed to their team's win total on the season) they rank eighth (McCollum) and ninth (Lillard). So, according to RPM wins, the Blazers have the best point guard in the game (narrowly edging Ben Simmons) and the second-best shooting guard (well behind Harden). All due respect to the duos in Boston and Toronto, but I think Lillard and McCollum are better than both (and the data backs that up). So it comes down to Harden and Westbrook. Though I think Lillard and McCollum are both better than Westbrook, Harden is so much better than everyone else that it gives Houston the nod. Case in point: The total RPM wins for Lillard and McCollum is 5.5. James Harden's RPM wins alone is 5.32. Add in Westbrook's 0.67 wins and Houston's duo edges Portland's. But just barely and only because Harden is so dominant.
Orlando: They definitely deserve to be in the discussion and have been one of the best backcourts for years now. Dame is arguably the best point guard and leader in the league, while CJ continues to be a rising star in this league, but I can't ignore the fact that this team is 12-16. Is it fair? Probably not, but I have a hard time putting them on top when I look at team success. Would you put them ahead of Russell Westbrook and James Harden? I have a hard time doing that right now. You've got two MVP level players getting it done in Houston. Their stats smash what the Blazers are doing in most categories and the Rockets are winning games.
3. We won’t be recording a podcast during Christmas week, so we’ve got a double serving of predictions this week: Between now and our next podcast on Jan. 2, the Blazers play seven games. Here’s the rundown:
- Friday, Dec. 20: vs. Orlando (12-16)
- Saturday, Dec. 21: vs. Minnesota (10-16)
- Monday, Dec. 23: vs. New Orleans (7-22)
- Thursday, Dec. 26: at Utah (16-11)
- Saturday, Dec. 28: vs. LA Lakers (24-4)
- Monday, Dec. 30: vs. Phoenix (11-16)
- Wednesday, Jan. 1: at New York (7-21)
Which games do the Blazers win and which do they lose?
Jared: I'm going to go the safe route and pick the Blazers to beat the teams they're better than and lose to the teams that are better than them. I'll judge it by point differential (one of the best indicators of team success), and go with the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately formula. Since the Blazers have got well against a weak schedule and their schedule will remain weak over the next seven games, I'll look at the Blazers' point differential over the past 11 games, which is +2.2. Judging their differential against the competition's differential over the same stretch, the Blazers will beat Orlando (-2.0), Minnesota (-5.8), New Orleans (-10.5), Phoenix (-3.5) and New York (-12.0). They'll lose to the Lakers (+9.6). Utah's point differential is -3.8 over the past 11 games, but I'll give the Jazz the edge at home. The Blazers go 5-2 through this stretch.
Orlando: I'm going to continue to stay the course with my picks. The formula is simple: if the Blazers are playing a team with a below-.500 record, I'm taking Portland. If it's .500 or above, I'm taking the opponent until the Blazers prove they can beat a good team. They're going to sweep this homestand and move up the Western Conference standings. They're beating Orlando, Minnesota and New Orleans. Then it's back-to-back losses against Utah and the Lakers. That game against Phoenix intrigues me, but I'll take the Blazers to close out 2019 with a win and beat the Knicks to start the new year. This two-week period is huge and I like Portland to answer the call by going 5-2.
Nate: I'm going to say the Blazers go 4-3. On paper, it looks like Portland should win their next three games. But, once again, I have a feeling they won't. The Magic have lost five of six, but they were against teams the Blazers would also probably lose to (Bucks, Lakers, Rockets, Jazz, Nuggets). I'm going to take a flier and say the Magic come into Portland and get a win. The Blazers bounce back and beat Minnesota and the Pelicans. Like they have all year, Portland will lose to teams with winning records, this time in Utah and the Lakers. They'll finish off this stretch by beating Phoenix and New York.
SEASON PREDICTIONS RECORDS
- Orlando: 20-8
- Jared: 18-10
- Nate: 18-10
MEET THE 3-ON-3 BLAZERS TEAM
Jared Cowley is a digital producer who writes about the Blazers and other topics for KGW.com. Jared has written about the Jazz and Warriors as a sports editor at two daily newspapers.
Nate Hanson is a digital producer who contributes to KGW.com’s coverage of the Blazers, Ducks, Beavers and high school sports.
Orlando Sanchez is the sports anchor and reporter for KGW News, Sports Sunday and Friday Night Flights. Orlando has covered multiple NBA Finals, NCAA Basketball Tournaments and World Series.
