PORTLAND, Ore. — Kawhi Leonard. Paul George. Kyrie Irving. Jimmy Butler. Allen Crabbe.
One of these players seems out of place.
Crabbe is making $18.5 million this season, part of a lavish four-year contract offer Crabbe signed with the Brooklyn Nets last offseason that the Blazers matched. The other four players are grouped with Crabbe above because their salary this season is within $1 million of what Crabbe, the 23rd-highest paid player in the NBA, makes.
Those four players were All-Stars this season — three of them starters — and rank among the top 20 players in the league. Crabbe is lucky to crack the top 150. Something doesn't add up.
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Crabbe shouldn't be criticized for how much money he makes. The Nets offered him the contract; he'd have been crazy not to sign it. It's safe to assume the Blazers would have preferred to sign Crabbe to a contract more like Maurice Harkless' deal, in the neighborhood of $10 million per season. But Portland couldn't control what the Nets offered to Crabbe and there is a valid argument that overpaying Crabbe was preferable to losing him for nothing.
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There are three other players in the NBA making salaries similar to Crabbe: Ryan Anderson and Luol Deng. Neither of those players are worthy of that large a contract. Deng is averaging about seven points and shooting worse than 40 percent this season. At least Anderson is contributing for the Rockets, scoring about 13 points per game and shooting close to 40 percent from the 3-point line, but a $19-million price tag is pretty steep for a stretch four who plays questionable defense.
Crabbe, Anderson and Deng signed pricey four-year contracts this past summer, during an offseason in which general managers around the league spent lavishly in reaction to the salary cap going up about $25 million. Some justified the large expenditures by claiming that in two or three years, the contracts would look reasonable as the salary cap continued to climb. With projections showing the cap inflation slowing down, that's looking less likely, too. These are bad contracts.
There is conflict, however in judging the value of Crabbe only by how much money he makes. Crabbe is overpaid, but that doesn't mean he is a bad player, nor does it take into consideration Crabbe's value to the Blazers. He is the team's fourth-leading scorer, its best 3-point shooter and a passable defender.
A winning solution
The problem is Crabbe could be so much more. Crabbe is squandering his talent because he is too timid operating within the Blazers' offense. The Oregonian's Mike Richman first presented the fact that the Blazers are a much better team when Crabbe takes 10 or more shots per game. The issue is that Crabbe rarely does it. For a player who shoots the ball as efficiently as Crabbe does, that's unacceptable.
The stats bear out how much Crabbe is hurting the Blazers by not being more aggressive on offense. When he takes 10 shots or more per game, the Blazers are 15-8, a .652 winning percentage or 53-win pace. When Crabbe takes 10 shots or fewer, the Blazers are 17-30, a .362 winning percentage or 30-win pace.
The success the Blazers have had when Crabbe is aggressive on offense has come both on the road and against good teams. Included in that 15-8 record are road wins against the Celtics, Nuggets, Thunder, Hawks and Bulls, as well as home wins against the Cavaliers, Jazz, Grizzlies and Heat. The data is legitimate. Crabbe has to shoot the ball more.
Better team, better player
When Crabbe is aggressive on offense, he benefits too. When he takes 10 shots or more in a game, Crabbe scores more points, shoots better from the field, 3-point line and free-throw line, rebounds more and dishes out more assists. Those increases aren't a byproduct of more playing time because Crabbe's minutes stay fairly consistent regardless of how often he shoots.
Take a look at the data when Crabbe shoots the ball 10 times or more:
When Crabbe takes 10 shots or more in wins (15 games): Crabbe averages 16.5 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 29.7 minutes per game. He shoots 53.4 percent from the field, 51.2 percent on 3-pointers and 91.9 percent on free throws.
When Crabbe takes 10 shots or more in losses (8 games): Crabbe averages 14.0 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.8 assists in 34.5 minutes per game. He shoots 42.2 percent from the field, 41.5 percent on 3-pointers and 86.7 percent on free throws.
When Crabbe takes 10 shots or more, win or loss (23 games): Crabbe averages 15.7 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.4 assists in 31.4 minutes per game. He shoots 49.4 percent from the field, 49.1 percent on 3-pointers and 90 percent on free throws.
Observe how Crabbe's performance plummets when he shoots the ball 10 times or less:
When Crabbe shoots the ball 10 times or less, win or loss (47 games): Crabbe averages 8.0 points, 2.4 rebounds and one assist in 27.1 minutes per game. He shoots 43.9 percent from the field, 38.8 percent on 3-pointers and 82.4 percent on free throws.
Is it Crabbe's fault?
Crabbe's usage rate, which calculates how many possessions a player "uses" (shooting the ball, shooting free throws or turning the ball over on a play), is 14.8 percent, which ranks 12th on the team. Only Noah Vonleh, Pat Connaughton and Ed Davis have lower usage rates than Crabbe.
Crabbe is not much of a shot creator so he needs other players to set him up for a shot. WinnersView points out that 92 percent of Crabbe's 3-point attempts are of the catch-and-shoot variety and 97 percent of his 3-point shots are assisted. For Crabbe to succeed, he needs his teammates to pass him the ball.
WinnersView.com brings stories and statistics together to make you smarter about the sports and games you love.
However, anyone who has watched the Blazers can tell you that Crabbe passes up open 3-point shots too often. Even though the Blazers run a flow offense predicated on ball and player movement, any time Crabbe moves the ball instead of firing up an open 3-pointer, it's a bad decision.
The Oregonian reported that Blazers head coach Terry Stotts and star guard CJ McCollum met with Crabbe earlier this season to brainstorm ways to get him more involved in the offense. Lillard told the Oregonian's Richman that he regularly tells Crabbe to shoot it every time he's open.
"We need him to be aggressive," McCollum told Richman. "Miss or make."
Crabbe ranks fourth in the NBA in 3-point shooting at 43.2 percent. His performance this season — 49.1 percent from the 3-point line when he shoots 10 times or more — proves that the more he shoots, the better he is. When Crabbe is aggressive, it's good for the Blazers and it's good for him.
Jared Cowley is a digital producer for KGW.com.
