PORTLAND, Ore. — The Portland Trail Blazers come out of the All-Star break with their work cut out for them.
Damian Lillard is injured and even though it appears he'll be back shortly after the break, Portland can't afford to tread water anymore. Trailing the eighth-place Grizzlies by four games — five in the loss column — means the Blazers have to go on a major run in the final 26 games if they want to make the playoffs.
There are reasons to believe it could happen.
Lillard will be back soon
The latest injury update for Lillard was the best-case scenario for Portland, as Yahoo Sports' Chris Haynes reported Thursday that the Blazers star guard would miss only 1-2 weeks. The Blazers said the same day that Lillard would be re-evaluated in one week.
What does that mean for Portland? Lillard might return and play in the Blazers' first game out of the All-Star break, this Friday against the New Orleans Pelicans. The more likely scenario is that Lillard returns Sunday against the Pistons, Tuesday against the Celtics or Thursday at the Pacers. Considering the Blazers are getting outscored by nine points per 100 possessions this season when Lillard is off the court, the sooner he returns the better.
Blazers schedule gets easier
Portland has the sixth-easiest remaining schedule in the NBA, according to Tankathon. The team the Blazers are chasing for the final playoff spot in the West, the Memphis Grizzlies, has the hardest remaining schedule in the league. Other teams in the hunt for the eighth seed include the San Antonio Spurs (11th easiest remaining schedule) and New Orleans Pelicans (easiest remaining schedule).
Chances to make up ground
Portland has two games left against the team they're chasing to make the playoffs. The Blazers play the Grizzlies two more times and both games are at home. Portland welcomes Memphis to the Moda Center on March 12 and April 5.
The Blazers also have a chance to create some separation from one of the teams chasing them. They play the Pelicans once more, this Friday at the Moda Center. Portland has already completed it season series against the Spurs. The Blazers own the tiebreaker after beating San Antonio in two of their three games this season.
Reinforcements on the way?
Portland hopes to get Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins back soon. The timetable for Nurkic was that he'd return after the All-Star break. He suffered a minor setback with a calf strain but the expectation remains that he'll be back this season.
Collins is scheduled to be re-evaluated in early March. He told The Athletic's Jason Quick that he expects to return to games some time in March.
Nurkic and Collins would provide a huge boost to the Blazers' playoff chase. Even if it takes them some time to return to form, they'd still be an upgrade for Portland, and the Blazers would certainly benefit from the emotional boost of having them back on the court.
Post All-Star break surges are the norm
In the past three seasons, the Blazers have a combined record of 54-21 after the All-Star break. Portland's post-break record has ranked in the Top 5 of the league each of the past three seasons.
The season that most mirrors this one is the 2016-17 season. It was the first season after LaMarcus Aldridge fled Portland for Texas, and the Blazers struggled without him, limping into the break with a 23-33 record. But Portland got a boost from its trade for Jusuf Nurkic and finished 18-8 after the break to make the playoffs.
LISTEN ON: Apple podcasts | Spotify | Stitcher | Google Play
Have a question you'd like us to answer on next week's podcast? Email us here
Here's a look at where the Blazers landed in the latest batch of NBA power rankings:
ESPN: Blazers rank No. 16 (down 1)
What they wrote: Just when it looked like this frustrating season was finally starting to turn, with the Blazers getting healthier as Damian Lillard found a supernova gear, Lillard pulled his groin in the last game before the All-Star break. The margin for error is razor thin for No. 9 seed Portland, currently four games back of the West's final playoff spot. Any time without Lillard could be devastating as the Blazers try to close the gap on the No. 8 Grizzlies. — Royce Young
The Athletic: Blazers rank No. 19 (down 3)
What they wrote: What are you playing for? Eighth seed and a possible nightmare scenario in the first round. This goal for the Trail Blazers became a lot murkier right before the All-Star break when Damian Lillard suffered a groin injury. Thankfully, it doesn’t appear to be too serious, although missing games could effectively sink the Blazers and their hopes of making the playoffs. They’re four games behind Memphis and have to win their next two meetings against the Grizzlies to secure the tiebreaker. This team struggled to win when Lillard was playing like a superhero this season. Expecting it to rally without him (however many games that is) seems irrational at best. But if the injury proves to just be a minor hiccup, the Blazers are still within striking distance. Also, nobody wants to face Dame in a playoff series.
Why this ranking? They lost to the two teams (New Orleans and Memphis) this week that they absolutely can’t lose to in this playoff push. On top of that, they may not have Lillard for a couple of games thanks to that groin injury. Dropping them a few spots until we have clarity on Dame’s injury status seems like the most logical action for the Blazers this week. — Zach Harper
CBS Sports: Blazers rank No. 17 (down 2)
What they wrote: The Blazers lost both games this week, including an important one to the Grizzlies to fall further behind in the race for the No. 8 seed out West. On top of that, Damian Lillard left Wednesday's loss to Memphis with a groin injury. Obviously Lillard is essential to Portland's success, so let's hope he has a speedy recovery. — Colin Ward-Henninger
Sports Illustrated and NBA.com did not publish power rankings this week. Jared Cowley writes about the Trail Blazers and other topics for KGW.com and is the co-host of KGW's 3-on-3 Blazers podcast. Have questions or comments for the 3-on-3 Blazers team? Email them here.
LAST WEEK'S POWER RANKINGS: Ariza, Trent Jr. give boost to Blazers
