Before the season, it looked as if the Civil War could be a repeat of last year, when Oregon beat Oregon State by the largest margin ever in a 69-10 victory at Autzen Stadium.
But as the season progressed, the Ducks have looked vulnerable on the road, and even a short drive to Reser Stadium in Corvallis doesn’t seem like the cakewalk it once did.
Oregon comes into Friday’s matchup with a 7-4 record, but is just 1-3 on the road. The Ducks are winless in their past three road games — at Washington State, Arizona and Utah — and they have been outscored 110-60.
Another thing to consider when evaluating this matchup is that Oregon State is better than expected in a few key areas.
The Beavers, who went 0-9 in Pac-12 play last season, are a decent team offensively under first-year head coach and former Oregon State quarterback Jonathan Smith.
Oregon State ranks seventh in the Pac-12 in total offense, averaging 411 yards per game. Oregon is third in the conference at 440.1 yards per game, so the two teams are close.
The Ducks’ defense has struggled at times this season, and they rank seventh in the Pac-12 in both total yards allowed (395.5) and rushing yards allowed (151.2). This week, they’ll have to slow down Oregon State running back Jermar Jefferson, who is second in the Pac-12 with 1,316 rushing yards.
That’s all the bad news for the Ducks.
The good news for Oregon is that the Beavers have by far the worst defense in the Pac-12.
Oregon State allows 539.2 yards per game, which is about 96 yards more than any other team in the conference. The Beavers also allow 44.8 points per game, which is about 12 points more than any other team in the Pac-12.
Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert has been strong this season, throwing for 2,883 yards, 27 touchdowns and eight interceptions. His touchdown passes rank second in the conference, and he ranks third at 262.1 yards per game.
Herbert’s favorite target, wide receiver Dillon Mitchell, leads the Pac-12 with 1,105 receiving yards, and he has scored nine touchdowns.
Both Herbert and Mitchell will create problems for Oregon State’s defense.
The Ducks and Beavers both will be motivated in this game as they battle for the state’s bragging rights, but Oregon will have some extra motivation because of what happened in 2016, the last time the Civil War was in Corvallis.
The Ducks ended up on the wrong side of a 34-24 score in former head coach Mark Helfrich’s final game with the program.
That loss not only ended Oregon’s eight-game winning streak in the Civil War, but it also dropped the Ducks to a 4-8 record, which was their worst since 1991.
“Our last go at their house wasn’t great,” Oregon linebacker La’Mar Winston Jr. said. “So we’re going to be practicing real hard this week.”
Having a seasoned quarterback like Herbert against a porous defense, plus the added motivation of the loss two years ago, will be enough for the Ducks to earn another year of bragging rights.
Expect a Ducks Civil War victory, this time 38-27.