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Diving deeper into SW Washington races, voter trends

While the race in Washington's 3rd Congressional District was still competitive, the gap actually widened in Jaime Herrera Beutler's favor this time around.

VANCOUVER, Wash. — More than 84% of voters in Southwest Washington turned out in this election.

As the area grows and voting patterns change, KGW wanted to look at what some of the results tell us. We dug into two races and found two different stories.

Almost 393,000 people in Washington's 3rd Congressional District voted, which was almost 86,000 more than the 2018 election. The 3rd Congressional District spans from the Oregon border to Rainier, east through the Columbia River Gorge and west to the coast. It's considered a rural-suburban area.

Battle for Washington's 3rd Congressional District

Democrat Carolyn Long, a political science professor, ran against Republican incumbent Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler in a rematch from two years ago. Both times, Long posed a serious threat to unseat the incumbent.

But in this election Long is losing by 12% — almost 47,000 votes — with more votes being counted. While the race was still competitive, the gap actually widened in Herrera Beutler's favor this time around.

"It was surprising ... because recent polls suggested a tightening in the race," Washington State University Vancouver Political Science Assoc. Professor Mark Stephan said. "I'd say the big thing was that there was a hope and expectation on the part of the Democrats — and, in particular, with candidate Carolyn Long — that they’d be able to close the gap in terms of what had happened in 2018."

Stephan noted there was a lot of national interest and outside money in this race because both parties had a shot at winning. Democrats around America hoped to flip the seat, while Republicans hoped the incumbent would hold on.

According to the New York Times, Herrera Beutler won every county in the 3rd Congressional District. That includes Clark County — the most populated in the district — which went to Long in 2018.

"There's a good reason to think that ... the increases in population in Clark County have been more moderate and conservative. I think that's a possibility," Stephan told KGW. "I think what is happening is that Clark County — in particular, Vancouver — is becoming the core of the Democratic vote, the Democratic party vote, in the third district. Without that there's not the ability to be competitive. But there needs to be some ability to be competitive in other parts of the district which generally are very conservative."

Long conceded to Herrera Beutler the day after the election.

RELATED: Washington 3rd District: Carolyn Long concedes race to Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler

How did Biden and Trump fare in SW Washington?

Data so far doesn't indicate any real trends in how people voted in Southwest Washington.

Biden won Pacific, Clark and Thurston (the lowest section of the county is in the third district) counties, much of the area that went red for Herrera Beutler. 

Every other county in the region went to Trump.

New York Times data shows every county in Southwest Washington besides Cowlitz County saw a democratic voter margin shift to some degree from 2016.

"Somewhat less conservative, more moderate Republicans can win in Washington. That means there's a significant amount of split ticket voting at that level," Stephan said. "This issue about voting for Herrera Beutler and also voting for Biden, we’ll see just broadly how the numbers match up but we won’t have exact calculations."

Stephan says the extreme polarization we see nationwide is playing out in Southwest Washington as well. Democrats are becoming more liberal while Republicans are becoming more conservative, without a gravitation toward the middle.

    

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