PORTLAND, Ore. — This last September, Portland General Electric made the call to shut off power for 37,000 customers across Oregon, including in Portland's West Hills. It happened as a windstorm approached the area during a stretch of hot and dry weather.
For Portland, it was the first time that part of the city had its power shut down in advance of a storm. At the same time, Pacific Power cut electricity to 10,000 customers in the areas of Otis, the Santiam Canyon and east of Sweet Home.
The concern in this case was that high winds could knock down trees and take down powerlines. Energized lines could spark and start dangerous fires, which spread particularly quickly amid strong winds.
It isn't a trifling concern. Oregon has, of course, seen its fair share of wildfires — it's a natural phenomenon that's occurred for thousands of years. But the wildfires of September 2020 were something unprecedented for the state. Pushed by sustained, strong winds after a long, dry summer, the fires killed 9 people, burned 1,800 square miles in Oregon and destroyed nearly 5,000 homes and other structures. Entire towns were devastated.
Pacific Power recently lost a class action lawsuit by homeowners who argued that the utility was at fault for some of those fires after it chose not to de-energize power lines before the winds arrived. Other companies, including PGE, did shut down power in some of their service areas.
But even before that judgment, it was clear that Oregon's utilities were adjusting to a new paradigm that the 2020 fires accelerated — thus the "public safety power shutoffs" of 2022.
On the lookout
Both PGE and Pacific Power have beefed up their weather forecasting abilities in recent years, which is why The Story's Pat Dooris recently met with PGE Fire Weather Meteorologist Lisa Kriederman at the company's new operations center.
"Before this job as the meteorologist for PGE, I was with the National Weather Service as an incident meteorologist, and what I did was I would go out to these wildfires — I would dispatch out to these and be their on-site meteorologist, with my number one priority being the safety of firefighters," Kriederman said. "So that was a big, you know, that that was my main priority, and I took that to heart and it was a stressful thing. But it was something that I knew I had to do, and I had the tools to do it, just as I do here. I have the certain weather models. I look at the certain thresholds. I talk to people out in the field and it's a team effort."
Now that Kriederman is at PGE, she'll be one of the main experts deciding whether to shut off power as summer storms approach. She'll rely on a wide range of high-tech systems to help inform her decision.
Those include a live satellite map showing how weather systems are moving. It was sensitive enough to show a streak of smoke from wildfires up in Canada that was brought south by a weather system.
"So the smoke is this light grey area stretching across southern Oregon and into Idaho," Kriederman said.
There's also a map crowded with public and private weather stations across Oregon broadcasting real-time temperatures, plus wind speed and direction.
"If we clicked 'all' then it would pretty much turn it black," Kriederman explained, "because there are so many weather stations across the area now."
There's also PGE's power shutoff map, highlighting in pink the areas most at risk should a wildfire break out.
"You have more potential there for that risk than other places in our service territory," Kriederman said.
But one of the most impressive pieces of technology is the suite of 26 cameras augmented with artificial intelligence and posted above the treeline for those areas on the power shutoff map. They can "see" for 30 miles and accurately detect smoke within 10 miles. It's a high-tech version of the classic forest lookout towers.
"These cameras are constantly scanning 360 degrees around them to see if there's any potential for any smoke," Kriederman added.
When the cameras spot something, they send out an alert. They also learn to tell the difference between steam, fog and smoke.
Kriederman demonstrated by showing Dooris an alert from that day, a barely visible trace of smoke.
"We can dial right in here, and it's gonna go through ... and it's very, very hard to see, but just for an instant I did see a little wiggle right there," Kriederman said, pointing to an indicator on the screen.
"Wow, because I was looking at this stuff over here," Dooris responded, gesturing to an overall haze visible on the camera in some areas. It was likely just a light fog.
"So there's little crosshairs where that artificial intelligence is saying, 'Hey — something is right here," Kriederman said.
A second alert drew their attention to another slight thread of smoke, captured by the camera's cursor.
"Just a little wisp," Dooris said.
"It's gonna be right at the top of the triangle," Kriederman said. "Another look … can you see it?"
The cameras not only send an alert and a video clip of the smoke, they also pinpoint a location on a map.
It's 'game time'
On top of monitoring all of this surveillance equipment, Kriederman will use a computer to generate predictions for what the weather will do in various locations based on current conditions, assumptions and 30 years of historical observations.
She knows that making to call to shut off power is not a decision to be taken lightly. During a hot summer, people are relying on air conditioning or fans to keep safe and cool. Many people with serious medical conditions rely on equipment that needs power to operate. But the alternative could be sparking a fire that grows to consume homes and even take lives.
"It's something that we take very seriously. Public safety is our number one priority," Kriederman said
"I know, but do you stay up at night worrying about it or ... " Dooris asked.
"Well, yes, but that's just the meteorologist in me," she replied. "I am always wondering what the weather is going to be doing ... but it's something that the 20 years of experience I've had that I have dialed into what is important for wildfire weather."
While Kreiderman hopes the weather cooperates this summer, her experience tells her that it may not — which is why she's here.
"I do look forward to fire season, just because that has been my focus for so many years ... I don't want to come across as enjoying destruction, but it is 'game time' — and the reason why wildfires spread is because of weather," she said. "So it's nice to understand and watch as it evolves, what happens to these fires and what that weather pattern is doing and what was the meteorological feature that really got certain fires going and some others not so."