PORTLAND, Ore. — Recent data shows that Oregon continues to deal with low birth rates. The problem is particularly pronounced in Multnomah County. In 2012, more than 9,000 kids were born county-wide. By 2022, that number dropped by almost 2,000 children.
"We have been projecting a long-run decline just on the basis of birth rates and overall growth in the city slowing down," Ethan Sharygin, the Portland State University (PSU) Population Research Center director, said.
Low birth rates are a problem for schools, Sharygin said. Funding is largely tied to student enrollment.
"The outgoing classes are just so much larger than the incoming classes have been," Sharygin said.
PSU research shows from 2019-2023, Portland Public Schools (PPS) attendance dropped 9.1%. Statewide, enrollment dropped 6%.
"One of the big concerns is what does it mean for PPS's finances?" Sharygin said.
School consolidation could be on the table at some point, he added. Some parents have already noticed fewer students in schools.
"We have seen a lot of attrition in recent years," Maya von Geldern, a Portland Public Schools parent, said.
During the pandemic, Portland Public Schools lost more than 3,000 students. Many never returned.
While von Geldern realizes school consolidation could happen, she hopes the district first tries to rebalance the size of schools.
"Then, we really need to focus on enrollment balancing, so that we don't have schools that are at 587 students for K-5 and at another K-5 under 200," von Geldern said.
KGW reached out to Portland Public Schools for an interview. The district declined our request.
Still, Sharygin said the district may have to take a hard look at its budget going forward and make tough decisions.
"A big part of the budget, of course, is the teachers,” he said. “And I think that is going to be a pressure that if student enrollment is declining, what do we do with that?"
Now, he mentions that a drop in attendance could also serve as an opportunity to address class sizes. During the November Portland Public Schools teacher strike, teachers consistently mentioned that class sizes were unwieldy.
The fall in birth rates is due to a number of factors, Sharygin said. One of the biggest is the cost of housing. People are moving out of Portland to find more affordable housing.
While the city is building more housing, many of the units are studio or one-bedroom apartments, which are not appealing to families, Sharygin said.