PORTLAND, Oregon — The national news is pointing to Oregon as a place where COVID-19 is surging. And certainly, the numbers are higher than they were a couple months ago.
But the numbers need context.
Nationally, the average change in the number of cases over 14 days is actually a negative number. It's going down 26%. But Oregon is going the other way, with a 14-day growth rate of 12%, putting it at fourth-highest on the list of U.S. states.
Washington state is eleventh-highest with a 4% growth.
Ali Mokdad is a researcher connected to the University of Washington. He studies public health and trends involving diseases and vaccinations.
He said its important to remember there are several factors at play.
“A balance between mobility and mask-wearing on one hand, so mask will help us, mobility if it's low helps us. And on the other hand vaccination and of course seasonality. Both of those are going to our advantage,” he said.
“It’s a delicate balance,” he continued. “And that balance in most states is to their advantage. It is not to our advantage in both states in Oregon and Washington,” Mokdad said.
He explained that a state like Texas has already seen roughly 30% of their residents infected with COVID-19 while Oregon and Washington are closer to 8%.
The total number of COVID-19 cases in Texas is roughly 2,906,548 since the pandemic began which is 10,024 cases per 100,000 people there. Oregon’s total number of cases is 188,460 which is 4,468 per 100,000 people living in the state.
“They can afford more mobility and dropping of their masks. We can’t," Mokdad said. "Because that balance will not work to our advantage."
When you look at counties in the U.S., Umatilla County, Ore. is No. 1 for percentage increase in hospitalizations with a whopping 656% over the last two weeks, which sounds awful until you see there are 10 people hospitalized in the tiny county.
Still, Oregon and Washington are behind much of the rest of the country, according to Mokdad, because the states did such a good job protecting the public and keeping case numbers low. But now as we tend to relax our habits from the severe restrictions we lived with during the worst of the pandemic, Oregon and Washington are seeing the trends move in a different direction from most of the country.
“People are moving out and about, and we can’t afford it in our states simply because we have more people who are susceptible to COVID-19 and you see a rise in cases," said Mokdad. "They have less people susceptible to COVID-19, they’re seeing cases coming down."
Oregon's COVID-19 numbers
On Thursday, the Oregon Health Authority (OHA) reported 763 new COVID-19 cases and five deaths related to the virus. Oregon has reported a total of 189,162 cases during the pandemic. The death toll is now 2,514 people.
Here are the Oregon counties that reported new cases Thursday:
Baker (12), Benton (14), Clackamas (38), Clatsop (3), Columbia (9), Coos (3), Crook (14), Curry (4), Deschutes (95), Douglas (13), Grant (3), Harney (1), Hood River (2), Jackson (38), Jefferson (4), Josephine (9), KIamath (31), Lake (1), Lane (70), Lincoln (2), Linn (42), Malheur (5), Marion (72), Morrow (1), Multnomah (115), Polk (20), Tillamook (1), Umatilla (9), Union (1), Wallowa (2), Wasco (2), Washington (107) and Yamhill (20).
There are 328 people hospitalized with COVID in Oregon, which is two fewer than reported Wednesday. Ninety COVID patients are in intensive care unit beds, seven more than reported Wednesday.
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In the past month through May 3, there have been 611 breakthrough cases of COVID-19, which involved fully vaccinated people. Of those breakthrough cases, eight people died, OHA said.
"The number of vaccine breakthrough cases identified in Oregon remains very small when compared to the more than 1.3 million people who have completed their vaccine series against COVID-19," OHA said in a news release.
In the past seven days, Oregon has administered more than 30,900 vaccine doses per day on average. More than 1,900,000 Oregonians have received at least one dose.