SALEM, Ore. — Oregon is about three weeks away from being inundated by new wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations sparked by the more-contagious omicron variant, Gov. Kate Brown and state health officials said at a press conference on Friday.
The forecast is based on modeling from Oregon Health and Science University, drawing on data from other countries and states where omicron has begun to spread in recent weeks. Oregon's first three cases were detected earlier this week.
There's a bit of uncertainty in the modeling because omicron is still so new, said Dr. Peter Graven, lead data scientist at OHSU's business intelligence unit. But there's no doubt the wave is coming very soon, and every modeled scenario points to a large surge in cases.
"The peak size is the one I'm most uncertain of," he said. "The speed at which it gets here, I have more confidence in that."
The state's top priority during the next few weeks will be to prepare for the wave by getting as many Oregonians vaccinated or boosted as possible, especially among vulnerable or underserved communities, Brown said.
“It’s not too late to protect yourself and those you care about from becoming gravely ill and even dying from COVID-19," added OHSU Chief Medical Officer Renee Edwards.
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Initial data from other countries and states that have been hit by omicron suggests that the new variant tends to result in fewer cases of severe illness among infected individuals, Graven said. Death rates have also been lower.
The problem is that omicron is far more contagious than prior variants and spreads incredibly quickly, he said. So even if omicron does result in a lower proportion of severe cases, the total number of cases is likely going to be so high that the minority of severe cases could still overwhelm hospitals.
“By the time we reach a peak, we do unfortunately expect the number of hospitalized Oregonians could eclipse the number from the delta (variant) surge in September," Graven said.
The variant is also better at evading the immune system's defenses and causing breakthrough infections in fully vaccinated people, according to Oregon Health Authority Director Patrick Allen.
Initial data suggests that a two-dose round of vaccination only provides about 50% as much protection against omicron as it would have against the original virus, he said.
However, the data does show that vaccinations still substantially decrease the risk of severe illness in people infected with omicron, he added, and booster doses appear to make that protection even stronger.
That's why the state is going to prioritize vaccinations and booster shots in the coming weeks, he said, including working to add staff at existing clinics and opening new clinics for underserved communities. The state has also requested additional vaccine doses from federal suppliers.
“Our goal to boost a million Oregonians by the end of January is urgent and attainable," he said.
Officials will also work to distribute beds and other resources to make sure hospitals throughout the state are as prepared as possible for the coming wave, he said.
The timing of the omicron wave is especially unfortunate, Edwards said, because although cases have been trending downward for the past few months, the state is still not fully past the previous case wave caused by the delta variant, and hospitals are already under heavy strain.
“This feels like another gut punch, particularly for health care workers," she said.
Brown was repeatedly asked about the possibility of renewed restrictions or lockdown measures to try to slow the virus's spread, but she didn't mention any specific new rules and said the priority would be vaccination and boosters.
State workers who were previously scheduled to come back to the office after Jan. 1 will remain remote for the time being, Brown said, and she added that she would meet with the businesses community to talk about what they could do.
“This is going to impact how businesses operate because this variant spreads so easily," she added.
Brown stated that she was "absolutely committed to keeping our schools open to the extent that we can do that safely," pointing to the availability of vaccines for children as a key advantage that the state didn't have during prior waves.
The Oregon Health Authority reported 909 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases and 19 new deaths on Thursday, bringing the state's pandemic totals to 404,229 cases and 5,527 deaths.